Record Exports and Sectoral Divide: BBVA Research’s Macroeconomic Outlook for Argentina – Trade News | 08/10/26

BBVA Research projects that Argentina will reach a record US$102 billion in exports in 2026, driven by growth in agriculture, energy and mining, particularly the expansion of production in Vaca Muerta and the development of associated infrastructure. During the first eight months of the year, the trade balance recorded a surplus of US$18.249 billion, compared with US$5.109 billion in the same period of 2025, with exports increasing 21.4% year-on-year and imports declining 2.6%. The report forecasts a trade surplus of US$24.6 billion by the end of 2026 and US$26.1 billion in 2027, while the Central Bank’s foreign currency purchases exceeded US$14.5 billion, bringing gross reserves to approximately US$50 billion and net reserves to US$9 billion. Regarding the exchange rate, it projects the peso at ARS 1,615–1,630 per dollar by the end of 2026 and ARS 2,026–2,040 by the end of 2027. Inflation is expected to slow to 29% annually in 2026 and 20% in 2027, while the primary fiscal surplus is projected to remain at 1.3% of GDP in both years. However, the study warns of a two-speed economy, where strong performance in mining, hydrocarbons and agriculture contrasts with weakness in manufacturing, construction and retail, sectors with greater employment-generating capacity. This disparity, combined with formal job losses and declining purchasing power, is limiting the recovery in private consumption, which is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. For next year, BBVA Research forecasts 3% GDP growth and a 12.2% increase in investment, supported by major infrastructure projects. The main risks identified include exchange-rate pressures associated with the 2027 electoral calendar, the need to accumulate an additional US$10–12 billion in reserves to meet debt obligations, and the potential effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon and international financial conditions. Link to Article