Critical Minerals: Lithium Demand Expected to Grow More Than 350% by 2040 as Trade Policy Takes Center Stage – Trade News | 13/06/26

Trade in critical minerals is becoming a strategic component of the global energy transition and industrial development, amid growing geopolitical competition and increased use of trade policy tools, according to a UNCTAD report .The organization projects that global lithium demand will increase by more than 350% by 2040, while graphite demand is expected to grow by more than 130%, driven by the expansion of electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy technologies, semiconductors, and data centers. The report highlights that production and processing remain highly concentrated: in 2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for 74% of global cobalt production, China produced 78% of the world’s natural graphite, and Australia, Chile, and China together represented more than 70% of global lithium production. In response to supply security concerns, governments have increasingly relied on trade policy measures such as licensing requirements, export taxes, and export restrictions, while international agreements related to critical minerals have expanded significantly since 2022. However, UNCTAD warns that many mineral-rich developing countries continue to focus primarily on raw material exports and face the challenge of strengthening domestic processing capabilities and value-added activities in order to avoid remaining confined to lower-value positions within global supply chains. Link to Article