Argentina’s Economy Expected to Grow 3% in 2026 and 2027, According to BBVA Research – Trade News | 29/06/26

According to a BBVA Research report, Argentina’s economy is expected to grow by 3% in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by private investment and exports amid an ongoing process of macroeconomic consolidation. The report states that fiscal discipline, slowing inflation, the recovery of international reserves, and greater exchange rate stability will strengthen the foundations for economic growth over the coming years. It also forecasts a primary fiscal surplus equivalent to 1.5% of GDP in both years, while inflation is expected to continue declining, reaching 29% by the end of 2026 and 20% by the end of 2027. Regarding the exchange rate, BBVA Research projects the peso at ARS 1,760 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2026 and ARS 2,200 by the end of 2027. The report highlights the strength of Argentina’s external sector, noting that the country recorded a US$11.783 billion trade surplus between January and May 2026, compared with US$1.883 billion during the same period in 2025. As a result, it revised its trade surplus forecast upward to US$22.6 billion for 2026 and US$23 billion for 2027. This improvement is expected to be supported by growing energy exports, the agribusiness sector, and natural resource-related industries, helping diversify the country’s export base. BBVA Research also projects investment growth of 7.1% in 2026 and 12.2% in 2027, while private consumption is expected to increase by 2.7% and 2%, respectively, supported by the gradual recovery of real wages. In addition, the report forecasts 37% growth in peso-denominated lending during 2026 and a 46% increase in U.S. dollar-denominated loans, driven by financing for the export sector. Overall, BBVA Research concludes that fiscal consolidation, disinflation, a stronger external sector, and rising investment will be the key factors supporting sustained and more resilient economic growth in Argentina over the next two years. Link to Article